The wheel that steers your guesses
Spin the wheel, note the number you get, then give your best estimate.
The experiment starts as soon as the page has loaded (JavaScript is required).
Try the experiment: your result will appear here, next to what most people do.
What just happened (read it after the experiment)
What most people do: In the original study, the median estimate went from 25% to 45% depending on the number the wheel showed.
In 1974, Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman spun a rigged wheel that stopped on 10 or on 65, then asked people for the percentage of African countries in the United Nations. Median estimate: 25% after 10, 45% after 65.
An unrelated number serves as an “anchor”: we start from it and adjust too little. The effect has been found in judges, real estate agents and doctors.
Crossed-out prices and “starting at” prices in ads rely on this bias.
More experiments
Sources
- Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, “Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases,” Science, 1974.